Business as usual: post COP-21 reality is cruder than oil.....
Energy Summit, Brussels, Egmont Palace, 23rd February 2016.
The summit was an interesting overview about the EU policy for the following 5-15 years after COP21. According to the COP agreement in Paris (yet to be ratified but considered to be a real success of the international diplomacy), each country has to deliver every 5 years specific plans for reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Those are the so called “Intended national determined contributions (INDCs). The agreement is binding after ratification, but not the INDCs. After this process, where each country or zone (e.g. EU) makes concrete steps and plans to reduce the anthropogenic emissions, the world is supposed to manage the increase in temperature to no more than 2 degrees and optimally no more than 1.5 degrees.
However when reading the concrete plans and the arguments of politicians and representatives of the larger corporations it is immediately evident that what we are talking about is simply “business as usual”. That is probably not only truth for the EU, but also US and many other countries.
It is not that the world has come to realise that mankind is in an extremely difficult situation where wildlife, environment, health and sustainable growth are at stake, and that therefore a radical change in the economic paradigm prevailing is needed - nothing of the kind - nobody challenges today’s mantra. The world must continue to be efficient and productive. We all must consume to activate the economy. The more we consume the more vigorous and healthier the economy is. This is the “business as usual” mantra: Continue producing commodities with more efficient processes which hopefully will produce fewer emissions. Continue producing and consuming heavily. Use energy more efficiently, reduce the carbon footprint of transport, render households and cities less polluting and efficient, make hybrid and electrical cars. Improve the chemical industry, use more renewables and dream that all that would be enough to make the world become emission neutral in the future and stop the catastrophic unpredictable warming up of the atmosphere.
Do you think the world is planning to stop the burning of carbon fuels and replace them by renewables? You are wrong. At the most, EU and others are intending to convert the coal power plants into gas-power stations. The new mantra for the coming years is to replace the coal and petrol with a mix of renewables and gas. Gas is very abundant. There is enough gas to be burnt for the next hundreds of years. And is less polluting, it does not litter so much carbon into the atmosphere. And renewables.....yes of course, as far as possible. Bear in mind that the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow....and bear in mind that whatever the plans are, the efficiency and sustainability of the industry is the most important factor to consider. So, gas and liquefied gas (LPG) will be with us until the North Pole melts down.
EU is discussing about the electricity network and the amount of resources needed to achieve some success in reducing emissions before 2030. New directives will regulate and redesign the energy market. Energy efficiency and regional agreements are seen as the magic formula. Competitiveness of the EU industry is essential, no matter at which cost.
Reality is cruder than oil. In 2013 26.7 % of electricity was generated in the EU by coal fired power plants and 16.6 % by gas (Eurostat data). In addition, 19 new coal power plants are in various stages of approval, planning or construction in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, Germany, Poland, Romania and Slovenia. Greenpeace figures show these new projects alone would emit almost 120m tonnes of CO2 every year – equivalent to three-quarters of the annual carbon output of the UK’s energy sector. The average lifespan for a coal power station is about 40 years, meaning the plants could release nearly 5bn tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere (the Gurdian, 27.08.2014).
The consumer is regarded simply as a poor human being unable to think. The thought is that a consumer will never buy a new and more efficient boiler if it is at the cost of giving up the week of holidays in Ibiza. The consumer has no ideals, no thoughts on his or her own, is always seeking some kind of material benefit. There are no much thoughts about education, about campaigning to convince the public to consume LESS, to become vegetarian, to use public transport, to stop buying cars... etc. It just goes against the prevailing mantra.
Agriculture is never mentioned or discussed. The 7 Gigatons of anthropogenic emissions produced by the livestock and agricultural industry (Nature Climate Change Vol 4 2014, pages 2-4, W.J. Ripple et al) is never questioned nor there are plans to cut it down.
Nobody really believes that the trend of global warming and the level anthropogenic emissions will ever be neutral in the future with the present plans. COP21 has been indeed a diplomatic success. However the world needs more than diplomacy. To be emission neutral in the future and prevent the raise of see levels and temperatures much above the 2 degrees the world needs much more than “business as usual”. This is once more a global problem that requires global solutions and governance.
All4oneworld, March 2016
Energy Summit, Brussels, Egmont Palace, 23rd February 2016.
The summit was an interesting overview about the EU policy for the following 5-15 years after COP21. According to the COP agreement in Paris (yet to be ratified but considered to be a real success of the international diplomacy), each country has to deliver every 5 years specific plans for reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Those are the so called “Intended national determined contributions (INDCs). The agreement is binding after ratification, but not the INDCs. After this process, where each country or zone (e.g. EU) makes concrete steps and plans to reduce the anthropogenic emissions, the world is supposed to manage the increase in temperature to no more than 2 degrees and optimally no more than 1.5 degrees.
However when reading the concrete plans and the arguments of politicians and representatives of the larger corporations it is immediately evident that what we are talking about is simply “business as usual”. That is probably not only truth for the EU, but also US and many other countries.
It is not that the world has come to realise that mankind is in an extremely difficult situation where wildlife, environment, health and sustainable growth are at stake, and that therefore a radical change in the economic paradigm prevailing is needed - nothing of the kind - nobody challenges today’s mantra. The world must continue to be efficient and productive. We all must consume to activate the economy. The more we consume the more vigorous and healthier the economy is. This is the “business as usual” mantra: Continue producing commodities with more efficient processes which hopefully will produce fewer emissions. Continue producing and consuming heavily. Use energy more efficiently, reduce the carbon footprint of transport, render households and cities less polluting and efficient, make hybrid and electrical cars. Improve the chemical industry, use more renewables and dream that all that would be enough to make the world become emission neutral in the future and stop the catastrophic unpredictable warming up of the atmosphere.
Do you think the world is planning to stop the burning of carbon fuels and replace them by renewables? You are wrong. At the most, EU and others are intending to convert the coal power plants into gas-power stations. The new mantra for the coming years is to replace the coal and petrol with a mix of renewables and gas. Gas is very abundant. There is enough gas to be burnt for the next hundreds of years. And is less polluting, it does not litter so much carbon into the atmosphere. And renewables.....yes of course, as far as possible. Bear in mind that the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow....and bear in mind that whatever the plans are, the efficiency and sustainability of the industry is the most important factor to consider. So, gas and liquefied gas (LPG) will be with us until the North Pole melts down.
EU is discussing about the electricity network and the amount of resources needed to achieve some success in reducing emissions before 2030. New directives will regulate and redesign the energy market. Energy efficiency and regional agreements are seen as the magic formula. Competitiveness of the EU industry is essential, no matter at which cost.
Reality is cruder than oil. In 2013 26.7 % of electricity was generated in the EU by coal fired power plants and 16.6 % by gas (Eurostat data). In addition, 19 new coal power plants are in various stages of approval, planning or construction in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, Germany, Poland, Romania and Slovenia. Greenpeace figures show these new projects alone would emit almost 120m tonnes of CO2 every year – equivalent to three-quarters of the annual carbon output of the UK’s energy sector. The average lifespan for a coal power station is about 40 years, meaning the plants could release nearly 5bn tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere (the Gurdian, 27.08.2014).
The consumer is regarded simply as a poor human being unable to think. The thought is that a consumer will never buy a new and more efficient boiler if it is at the cost of giving up the week of holidays in Ibiza. The consumer has no ideals, no thoughts on his or her own, is always seeking some kind of material benefit. There are no much thoughts about education, about campaigning to convince the public to consume LESS, to become vegetarian, to use public transport, to stop buying cars... etc. It just goes against the prevailing mantra.
Agriculture is never mentioned or discussed. The 7 Gigatons of anthropogenic emissions produced by the livestock and agricultural industry (Nature Climate Change Vol 4 2014, pages 2-4, W.J. Ripple et al) is never questioned nor there are plans to cut it down.
Nobody really believes that the trend of global warming and the level anthropogenic emissions will ever be neutral in the future with the present plans. COP21 has been indeed a diplomatic success. However the world needs more than diplomacy. To be emission neutral in the future and prevent the raise of see levels and temperatures much above the 2 degrees the world needs much more than “business as usual”. This is once more a global problem that requires global solutions and governance.
All4oneworld, March 2016